Santana Not In The Cards

It's time for a reality check, Cards' fans.  The Johan Santana saga is over, and for any of you that were thinking the best pitcher in baseball over the last several years was about to don the Birds on the Bat, wake up.

Johan will pitch in St. Louis, but not until the end of June, when the Mets come to town.  It's tough to imagine Santana throwing to National League hitters.  I guess if anything, at least we'll get to see another superstar in person that we might not have otherwise.

So why the Mets?  Why not the Cardinals?  First, note the package of players the Twins got in the trade.  New York sent over their number 2, 3, 4, and 7 prospects. Sure the Cardinals could have come up with a similar package, but it would have certainly included Colby Rasmus, Jamie Garcia, maybe Mitchell Boggs, and another prospect.  Derrick Goold has more.  Is that too much talent to give up for one player, even if that player is Johan Santana?  That's debatable.

Remember, going into this offseason, with our new GM, John Mozeliak, the message was clear.  The Cardinals are trying to rebuild their depleted farm system while trying to stay competitive.  Unlike in years past, this means not mortgaging the future for a veteran all-star.  St. Louis has been very successful with the old strategy (6 playoff appearances in the last 8 years, including 2 trips to the World Series and 1 Championship).  But, the game is evolving.  The stars of today are the youngsters, guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Troy Tulowitsky, and Joba Chamberlain.  The list goes on and on.  And while the Cardinals current farm system looks better than it has for quite some time (ranked 13th by Baseball America), a multi-player package for Santana undoubtedly sends it back near the end of the pack.

The other big reason for not being in the Santana sweepstakes:  money.  The Mets are finalizing an extension for Santana that the Cardinals just could not touch.  Right now, word is around $130 million for six years, to go on top of his $13.25 million for 2008 (link).  St. Louis can't compete with that.  We're talking about two completely different sized markets.  The Mets ranked third in payroll last season, while the Cards were 12th.

Also, the Redbirds have been pretty stingy when it comes to giving pitchers long term deals.  Their last, for Chris Carpenter, preceeded an injury to the former Cy Young Award winner, leaving him on the shelf until at least the '08 All Star break.  Carpenter pitched in only one game in '07.  It was Opening Day, and it was against the Mets.  I don't foresee another multi-year deal for a pitcher anytime soon.

So, while it's nice to visit fantasy land every now and then, especially in the offseason, the fact of the matter is that Johan Santana, and other players of his caliber, won't be coming to play for St. Louis.  I'm glad. 

Two Links and a Reminder

Here we are still four days away from the Super Bowl, and I'm already sick of the thing.  Luckily, there are guys like Bernie Miklasz, of the Post Dispatch, that can somehow mix in a little baseball with his media day coverage.  He talks about Tony LaRussa's relationship to Patriot's head coach, Bill Belicheck.  It's an interesting read.  Find it here.

Next, as we continue to count down the days until Spring Training, looking for our daily baseball fix, be sure to read Matthew Leach's take on the "muddled" starting rotation of the St. Louis Cardinals in his weekly "Around the Horn" segment.

And, if you haven't done so already, voice your expectations of Mark Mulder by casting a vote in the poll question on the sidebar.  One day left.

Are You Kidding Me?!

Pujols is in the news again.  Phillies' first baseman, Ryan Howard, is arbitration eligible, and is comparing himself to Cardinals' slugger Albert Pujols.  Apparently, there is a $3 million difference in exchanged figures for the arbitration case, but Howard is seeking a long term deal worth somewhere between Pujols' contract and Alex Rodriguez's last bounty. Just the thought of this makes me laugh.  I understand that the market has changed since Albert's signing, but Ryan Howard should never, ever be compared to either of the other two superstars.  Howard isn't even the best player in Philadelphia.  Here are a couple of links to the story.  If you're an ESPN Insider, click here.  If not, get a quick summary from MLB Trade Rumors here.  Be sure to check out the comments after the latter, too. There's some funny stuff there.  I thought about comparing the numbers of Howard and Pujols for you, but I don't think that's necessary.

In the rest of the baseball world, one of the most anticipated moves of the off season occurred today.  The Minnesota Twins finally traded their ace, Johan Santana, to New York for four of the Mets' top prospects. Marty Noble has the full story.  Perhaps now we'll see the remaining starting pitching trade candidates moved, as well as the remaining free agents picked up.

Wellemeyer Avoids Arbitration

The Cardinals reached an agreement with the last of their arbitration eligible players today.  Pitcher, Todd Wellemeyer signed a one year, $1 million contract, which includes $100,000 in possible incentives for starts or innings pitched.  Rick Hummel has the full story here.

Wellemeyer was picked up off waivers from Kansas City last May.  After joining the club, he posted a 3.11 ERA in 63.2 innings.  As a swing man, Wellemeyer made 11 starts, nine of which were won by the Cardinals.

With all the question marks in the Cards' pitching staff, a guy like Wellemeyer can be quite useful.  I have a feeling he'll play a big role this season, and should have no trouble collecting his incentives.  He'll be competing for the fifth spot in the rotation with Anthony Reyes, Brad Thompson, and others.  Out of the bullpen, Wellemeyer would assume the role once held by Josh Hancock.

I'm excited to see what Todd can do in a full season with the Redbirds.  Pitchers and catchers report in seventeen days.

More on Spring Training

The excitement of buying my Spring Training tickets has yet to wear off. This spring is my third year of attending the games in Jupiter, which is only an hour from my place.  My excitement, along with the lack of Cardinals news, allows me to take this time to get a little personal.

I moved from St. Louis to South Florida in March of 2006.  The move was kind of an "all-in" situation, where not making it wasn't an option. Although times were tough at first, and we were counting our pennies, saving enough for a Spring Training game was a must.

I'll never forget that first game.  We enjoyed a few beers as we waited for the gates to open.  I had heard good things about Roger Dean Stadium, but this was my first experience.  I remember thinking how small the concourse and vending area was as I passed through the entrance.  I guess I was comparing it to a major league park.  I made a quick stop at the beer cart before climbing the few steps to the seating area.  At the top of the staircase my breath was taken away.  It was amazing.  I couldn't believe how close the field was. The proximity of the players was unreal.  At that moment, I thought, I'll be back here often.

Since that first game, I've enjoyed several trips to Jupiter, as well as a few other ballparks within driving distance.  The more I learn about Spring Training, the better it gets.  I've seen the AB hitch, clydesdales and all, marching around the warning track just as they would in St. Louis.  I've seen all the stars, as well as the prospects, trying to shake off the winter rust.  I've gotten countless autographs from Cardinal greats, including Hall of Famer, Bob Gibson.  Now that I know what to expect, I'm more excited about camp than ever before.

For those who haven't been to a Spring Training game, I couldn't recommend it more.  You don't know what you're missing.  If you can't make it down to Florida, I'll do my best to provide you all the insights I can. As I said in yesterday's post, I've already purchased tickets to four games, and I'm sure I'll attend more.  I'll take a ton of pictures, and do everything I can to give you an idea of all the happenings from camp.  If there's anything in particular you'd like to see or hear about, please email me, or leave me a comment.  

Spring Training Tickets and More

Cardinals Spring Training tickets went on sale this morning at 8am.  If you're anything like me, you were sitting in front of the computer, credit card in hand, waiting for the hour.  I bought tickets to four games so far, but don't worry if you haven't ordered any yet.  Check out Stubhub.  There's a link in the sidebar, and they'll have plenty of good tickets still available.  I hope to see you in Jupiter.

Speaking of Spring Training, the non-roster invitee list is out.  NRIs are players not on the roster, but who'll be in camp either getting an extended look from the coaching staff, or competing for a spot with the club. There are quite a few intriguing names on the list, including top prospects Colby Rasmus and Bryan Anderson.  Matthew Leach has the full story here.

Also, be sure to check out Leach's latest "Around the Horn".  He discusses the new look outfield here.

Finally, the Cardinals have announced their television schedule on Wednesday.  FSN Midwest of course gets the bulk of the load, while KSDK returns to televise 20 games, all in high definition.  You can get all of the information here.

Mark Mulder Expectations

It seems as though the Mark Mulder situation has many Cardinal fans feeling uneasy.  As we all know, Mulder's return date of opening day was already pushed back to May 1st.  Now, that date seems unlikely.  Mark has yet to start throwing off a mound, and has only been throwing at a distance of 45 feet.  He says he feels good, but is reluctant to set a timetable for his return.

"Estimates did good for me last year, huh?" Mulder said Monday.  "People can put a date on it if they want.  My body and my arm will tell me when they're ready."

Read the full story here.

What can we expect from Mulder in 2008?  It's nearly impossible to predict how he'll perform, and projections get tricky for pitchers that missed so much time.  Mulder only made three big league starts in '07 after pitching about a half season in '06.

Here's what the projections from ZIPS and Bill James look like:

                       W      L      GS     IP     ERA

ZIPS                 7     11      24    144    5.06

Bill James        7      9      23    143    4.34

Fangraphs has the entire projection lines, along with his career stats here.

Are these numbers realistic?  Was Mulder's 7.69 ERA over the last two years due only to him pitching hurt? We can only hope.  Every Cardinal fan has been waiting to see the "old" Mark Mulder since he arrived in St. Louis in 2005 (His '05 numbers would have been the best on the staff last season).  He says he's never been a whole pitcher as a Cardinal and still hopes to show fans what he can do.  What's your opinion?  Cast your vote in the poll question in the sidebar, and as always, comments are welcome.

He Can Hit Anything

I dug up this old video game commercial for your viewing pleasure.  Enjoy!

Welcome Back, Mike Matheny

The anticipation and excitement for Spring Training has just gotten bigger.  Former Cardinals catcher, Mike Matheny, will head to Jupiter, Florida, to help instruct for the first two weeks of training camp.  Rick Hummel has the full story.

"This would be a foot in the door," said Matheny, who has previously expressed an interest in coaching.

Matheny played for the Cardinals from 2000-04.  Not known for his bat, he collected four Gold Gloves during the course of his career, which was cut short by a series of concussions and their after effects.

Cards' newest multi-millionaire, Yadier Molina, attributes a lot of his defensive success to Matheny.  The two split time behind the plate in '04.

Cardinal backup Jason Larue said of Molina, "He's got one of the best arms in the game and has learned how to handle pitchers from watching Mike Matheny."

Mike helped the Redbirds to four postseason appearances in five years, and was one of the biggest clubhouse leaders during his time in St. Louis.  After the departure of shortstop David Eckstein, Matheny's old jersey number, 22 is available again.

"I don't care about that," said Matheny.  "The one that counts is the logo across the chest.  It's great to be back."

It will be great to see him back.  I can't wait to see Matheny and Molina standing together again with the Birds on the Bat.   To me, this story ranks right up there with the return of Rick Ankiel.  There are very few Cardinals from the recent past that are as respected as Mike Matheny.  Welcome back.

A Few Quick Links

The news of Yadier Molina's new contract has finished making its rounds though the Cardinals' corner of cyberspace.  As I read others' reactions and opinions of the deal, one article in particular, really caught my eye.  The sabermetrics guys over at Fungoes further analyzed Molina's effect on the running game (or lack thereof).  It's an excellent read with somewhat surprising results.  Find it here.

A few other stories surrounding the ball club surfaced over the last couple of days, including Albert Pujols banning a local media team from a press conference.  C70 has his take, and all of the links here.

Lastly, Bud Selig was in St. Louis last night for the annual baseball writers' dinner, further addressing the steroid issue, as well as the growth of the sport.  Tom Timmermann has the full story here.

Cards Lock Up Molina

The Cardinals inked catcher Yadier Molina to a four year contract today worth a guaranteed $15.5 million.  Molina will make $1.75 million in 2008, $3.25 million in 2009, $4.25 million in 2010, and $5.25 million in 2011.  The contract also includes a $250,000 signing bonus, and an option for 2012 worth $7 million.

"I love being a Cardinal," Molina said.  "I had to take it because I love being here. I love playing here in this beautiful city with the best fans.  Anybody can take that deal.  It's great.  I feel happy."

I think this is an excellent move.  Yadier is still only 25, and is arguably the best defensive catcher in baseball, although it seems as if the Gold Glove voters haven't yet figured it out.

"There's no reason you shouldn't see some Gold Gloves from this kid," Cardinals back-up catcher, Jason LaRue said.  "I as surprised he didn't win won this (past) season.  This kid has got some unbelievable tools behind the plate."

Molina's cannon of an arm, combined with his fantastic footwork and record glove-to-hand transfer time, completely shut down the opposition's running game.  Most around the Cardinals' organization say his best asset, however, is his game calling and handling of the pitching staff.

"Yadier is the best catcher in the game, period," Cardinals pitcher, Adam Wainwright said.  "The fact he has never won a Gold Glove is a joke.  And I'm sorry to anybody who voted for the other guy.  I know Russell's good, but Yadier Molina is a blessing.  He just changes the game in so many ways."

Molina has started to come around with the bat too.  After helping the Cardinals to a World Series championship in '06, hitting .358 in the playoffs, including a .412 average in the Series, Yadi followed with a strong 2007, hitting .275 with 6 home runs.

Now that he's locked up long term, the team may opt to use their top catching prospect, Bryan Anderson, as a trading chip.  For more on the Molina signing, visit the Post Dispatch, here.

Two For One

As promised, here's a second post for today.  After this morning's rant about a certain jersey number, I felt obligated to provide you with some more newsworthy stuff about the ball club.

First, the Cardinals are making progress with their arbitration eligible players.  Rick Ankiel agreed to a new one year contract that will pay him $900,000 in 2008.  Incentives could make it an even $1 million.  Figures for both Todd Wellemeyer and Yadier Molina have been exchanged, and negotiations continue as the players hope to avoid arbitration hearings.  The Post Dispatch has the full story here.

Most Cardinal fans know that the annual Winter Warm-up is going on this weekend in downtown St. Louis. Living here in South Florida makes it tough for me to attend.  Luckily, Derrick Goold has been blogging about the Warm-up daily.  He's got some great stuff.  Check it out here.  Anyone that did attend the event, I'd love to hear your story, so feel free to comment or shoot me an email.

Finally, there's a new interview with top prospect, Colby Rasmus, posted at Colby-Rasmus.com.  It's definitely worth the read.  Here's the link.

The 15

I've got a bit more to say about jersey numbers today.  Bear with me.  Last week, Troy Glaus chose to wear 8, rather than Mark McGwire's 25.

"I've been 25 a long time.  I've known Mark for a long time," Glaus said.  "He's an icon in this city and I'm not going to do that."

Last season, 8 belonged to Cardinals hitting coach, Hal McRae.  I just found out that this season, McRae will wear 15, the number worn by departed fan favorite, Jim Edmonds, since 2000.  The news didn't sit well with me.  I don't expect 15 to be retired by the Cardinals, but I'd at least like to see it put away for a while.  Why can't McRae say something like Glaus did?  Jim is an icon in St. Louis.  I know what some of you are thinking, so to better explain my thoughts on this, we're going to do a little role playing (you play the part of You, and I'll be Me).  Ready?

YOU:  Mike, it's just a number.  What's the big deal?

ME:  Just a number?  It's not just a number.  It's the number I've been staring at from the bleachers for the past eight years.  It's Jimmy's number.

YOU:  Yeah, okay, but it's not like it's retired or something.

ME:  Who cares if it's retired.  McGwire's number isn't retired and it hasn't been re-issued.  Jimmy's done a lot more for the Cardinals than Big Mac ever did.

YOU:  You're taking this too seriously man.  I'm sure Edmonds doesn't care if someone in St. Louis wears the number fifteen.

ME:  What?  Pull your head out of your ass!  He named his St. Louis restaurant F15teen.

YOU:  That's probably just a clever marketing gimmick.  He's rich.  Do you really think he cares?

ME:  Yeah.  Check out this page from a magazine my mom sent me.

YOU:  (After checking out the page here)  Wow.  That's pretty heartfelt.  He even signed it #15.  I guess he does care.  So now what are you going to do?

ME:  I'll tell you what I'm going to do.  I'm going to tell my friends, my family, and everyone I know to petition against this move.

YOU:  I'm sure you and a few handfuls of people aren't going to make Hal McRae change his number.

ME:  You're missing the point here.  If everyone I know tells everyone they know, soon we'll have a hell of a lot of pissed off people and then Hal McIdiot can find himself a new damn number!

Thanks for playing.  Check back for a second post later today.

2008 Team Outlook - Part 4

With under a month now until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, it's time to take a look at the Cardinals starting rotation.  I've already discussed the bullpen, both the infield and the outfield, and the team's payroll, so check them out if you missed them.

Anyone who watched the '07 team knows that the biggest weakness was the starting pitching.  The group will have to be much better this year in order for the club to stay competitive.  So far, word is that staff ace, Chris Carpenter, will be out until mid-season, as he completes his recovery from Tommy John surgery.  Carpenter pitched only one game (opening day) last year.  According to reports, lefty Mark Mulder should be ready to go by May 1st, although I won't be holding my breath.  Mulder's timetable has never been accurate.  I often wonder about our medical staff, but that's a whole other story.  So who will be in the rotation out of spring?

Adam Wainwright, the de facto ace, might get the ball on opening day.  In 2007, Wainwright was 14-12, with a 3.70 ERA in 32 starts.  He was, however, a much better pitcher in the second half.  To me, Wainwright's best pitch, his curve, wasn't as knee-buckling in '07 as it was the year before.  Remember how dominant he was closing out games in the playoffs?  I bet Carlos Beltran is still having Game 7 nightmares.  Now, with a full big league season under his belt, I expect Wainwright to be slightly better in '08.

Braden Looper will again have a big role this year.  Last season was his first as a starter.  In 31 games (30 starts), he went 12-12, with a 4.94 ERA.  He showed some arm fatigue in '07, but should have more endurance this year.  I expect him to be improved as well.

Newcomer, Matt Clement, joins the rotation this season.  He hasn't pitched in a major league game since June 14, 2006, so it's nearly impossible to predict what we'll get out of him.  I liked the low risk signing, and I'm hoping he can log innings and come close to being the pitcher he was with the Cubs.  From 2002-04, Clement started 94 games, going 35-36, with very respectable ERAs and high strike out totals.  I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch this spring.

Joel Pineiro slots into the fourth spot.  After the Cardinals picked him up last year, he compiled a record of 6-4, with an ERA of 3.96 in 11 starts.  There was some talk last season of him tipping his pitches, but apparently that's been worked out.  I'd be happy with 10-12 wins from Joel in '08.

As it looks right now, the fifth spot could be a combination of guys.  Anthony Reyes, Todd Wellemeyer, and Brad Thompson could all start games until Mulder is healthy.  Wellemeyer showed promise last season, while Reyes was downright awful.  He didn't get much run support, but it always seemed like he'd give up one big inning and get the loss.  Surprisingly though, barring a trade, I'm looking for Reyes to be the fifth guy.  He's had a few outstanding games with the Cards (so did Jason Marquis), but was excellent throughout most of his time in the minors.  A new season, with a clean slate, is just what Reyes needs.

Overall, the starting rotation looks improved over last season.  Not having Kip Wells or Mike Maroth involved is a plus.  Perhaps the better glove at short this year could make a difference too.  Either way, it should be more fun to watch.

Baseball Withdrawal?

This never gets old.  If it doesn't get you excited for baseball season, you're not a Cardinal fan.  Enjoy!

The Best Budweiser Commercial Ever

Add to My Profile | More Videos

Works every time.

More Notes and Links

First, I should point out that yesterday was also the birthday of Cardinal Hall of Famer, Dizzy Dean.  I thought about working it into yesterday's post, but didn't want to cloud the message I was trying to convey about Albert Pujols.  Check out Dean's Cooperstown credentials here.

Speaking of Pujols (again), the folks at Cardinals Diaspora pointed out a Tigers blog that gave a nice defensive analysis of all first basemen, and I wanted to pass it along.  Of course Albert ranks at the top.  The entry, by Lee Panas, can be found here.  Thanks CD.

Mathew Leach's weekly segment, "Around the Horn" is back again.  This time, he looks at the middle infielders.  Check it out here.

The middle infield was also the subject of a question I posted to Jeff Gordon in his Monday chat session over at the Post Dispatch.  Here's the transcript:

Mike: Greetings Gordo - I'd like to know your thoughts on the middle infield situation. Now that Aaron Miles is back, does this mean that Brendan Ryan starts the year in Memphis? I see only three spots available with Izturis, Kennedy, Miles, Ryan, and Jimenz competing. Is it possible that Izturis pulls a Spivey, and doesn't make the club? Thanks! Mike from Miami, FL

Jeff Gordon: Anything is possible. Izturis has a solid defensive reputation, so I believe he stays. Jiminez is the longshot. Miles offers Kennedy insurance; he could play a lot if Kennedy is really finished. Ryan's versatility will make him a strong candidate -- but if both Izturis and Kennedy hit well enough to start, he could go back to Memphis as the full-time shortstop. Mozeliak, appropriately, created lots of competition here.

Link.

Finally, Commissioner Bud Selig received a contract extension today.  He'll be in office through at least 2012.  ESPN has the full story.  I'm not sure of my feelings on this yet, but feel free to leave your own comments.  

Happy Birthday Albert

Today is Albert Pujols' 28th birthday, and I wanted to say a few words about him.  I think it's important to recognize all that he's accomplished so far in his illustrious career.  As Cardinal fans, watching Albert play day in and day out over the years, we've become accustomed to his production, and it's easy to take his tremendous contributions for granted.  

Since Pujols first made it to the big leagues as a twenty-one year old with the Cards in 2001, he's done nothing but hit.  No other player has ever hit over 30 home runs, drove in over 100 runs, and bat over .300 in the first seven years of his career.  Pujols amassed these numbers each year from '01 through '05, setting a record, and has since broken his own record twice.  It doesn't look like like he's planning on slowing down anytime soon either.  His statistics show just how extraordinary he is.

Check out these gaudy numbers:

YEAR  AVG    HR   RBI

2001  .329    37    130

2002  .314    34    127

2003  .359    43    124

2004  .331    46    123

2005  .330    41    117

2006  .331    49    137

2007  .327    32    103

View all of his stats here.

Albert has been selected to 6 All Star games, has 3 Silver Slugger Awards (at 3 different positions), a Hank Aaron Award, a Gold Glove, was Rookie of the Year in '01, MVP in '05 (was voted in the top 4 for MVP 6 times), and was the Major League Player of the Year in '03.  The list of other awards goes on and on.

The list of Pujols' most similar batters includes names like Joe DiMaggio, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, and Lou Gehrig.  Let's remember that we're fortunate enough to have one of the greatest players in history currently playing for our beloved Redbirds.

"A lot of people said I could be a good player.  I just wanted the opportunity to show it." - Albert Pujols

The 25

Tomorrow the Cardinals will formally announce the trade for new third baseman, Troy Glaus.  With it, perhaps, we'll find out what number he'll wear on his jersey.  For the past several years, Glaus has had the number 25 on his back.  No Cardinal has worn that number since Mark McGwire in 2001. Will Glaus be the next?  Will there be a next?

Currently, there are ten numbers retired by the Cardinals:

• 1  Ozzie Smith
• 2  Red Shoendienst
• 6  Stan Musial
• 9  Enos Slaughter
• 14 Ken Boyer
• 17 Dizzy Dean
• 20 Lou Brock
• 42 Bruce Sutter/Jackie Robinson
• 45 Bob Gibson
• 85 August Busch, Jr.

A few others, although never retired, have yet to be re-issued.  There's Willie McGee's 51, Darryl Kile's 57, and of course Big Mac's 25.

Personally, I hope we never see another Cardinal wearing 51 or 57.   But, with McGwire's hall status in doubt, many believe it's time his old number finds a new owner.  I can't say that I disagree.

More on Glaus, Rolen

It's official.  Both players passed their physical today, so the swap of third basemen is now approved.  As promised, I compared some numbers to see what the Cardinals could be gaining or losing with a new man at the hot corner.  Salary and age are both negligible.

I decided to limit the past stats to the last four years.  Due to injuries, Rolen missed most of the '05 season, while Glaus missed most of '04.  Both players missed significant time last season.  So, by looking only at 2004-07, both games played and at-bats are nearly the same for both players.

First, let's compare the basic offensive stats:

YR  Name    G     AB    HR    RBI      BA     OBP     SLG

04  Rolen   142  500    34     124    .314    .409    .598

04  Glaus    58   207    18      42     .251    .355    .575

05  Rolen    56   196     5       28     .235    .323   .383

05  Glaus   149  538    37      97     .258    .363    .522

06  Rolen  142   521    22      95    .296    .369    .518

06  Glaus   153  540    38    104    .252    .355     .513

07  Rolen  112   392     8       58     .265    .331   .398

07  Glaus  115   385    20      62     .262    .366   .473

Totaling  the four year span:

     Rolen  452 1609   69     305    .287

     Glaus  475 1670   113    305    .256

Now let's look their 2008 projections from ZIPS:

08  Rolen  106  380    9       55     .255    .331    .397

08  Glaus  134  469    27     82     .247    .350    .469

How about a couple of defensive stats:

Range Factor   04      05      06      07

       Rolen       3.06   3.19   3.06   2.99

       Glaus       2.07   3.01   2.80   2.52

Zone Rating     04      05       06      07

      Rolen        .822   .875   .803    .847

      Glaus        .652   .766    .741    .737 

  

Fielding Pct.    04      05      06       07

      Rolen        .977   .966   .965   .969

      Glaus        .950   .946   .963   .967

The bottom line?  It's no secret that Rolen is a much better defender.  He's won seven gold gloves (Glaus has never earned one).  Scotty's glove cannot be replaced.  What the Cardinals are giving up on defense, they'll make up for with Glaus' offense.  His power numbers have remained a plus over the years, while Rolen's have been in a steady decline since his first shoulder injury.  The Cards' lineup should look a bit more dangerous with Glaus penciled in behind Pujols.  Protecting Albert in the lineup is often overlooked.  ZIPS projects similar averages for both players, but gives Glaus a clear advantage in home runs and slugging percentage. Now we have something else to get excited about for the upcoming season.

Wait For It

Well, I've got an entire post, ready to publish, completely devoted to crunching the numbers of both Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen.  A little compare and contrast, if you will.  However, I've decided that it would be a bit premature to post it today, and now plan on waiting until the trade is finalized, after both players pass their physicals.

So instead, let's bide our time with some minor, late news surrounding the ball club.  I'll refer you to the St. Louis Post Dispatch, where you'll find an interesting article discussing our old pal, Walt Jocketty, and his new position with the Cincinnati Reds.  Derrick Goold has the story.

A couple more former Redbirds have signed on elsewhere.  Kip Wells has signed a one year deal with the Colorado Rockies, while infielder Miguel Cairo has signed on with the Seattle Mariners.

For those interested in the annual Cardinals Caravan, the schedule and lineups are now available.  Matthew Leach has all the info.

Also, Rick Hummel has the news of another loss in the Cardinal family.  Long time VP of community relations, Marty Hendin, passed away last night at 59.  Another tip of the cap is due Cards fans.  Read the full article here.

Rolen to Toronto

The Cardinals and Bluejays have agreed on a trade that would swap their third basemen.  Pending physicals, Toronto will get seven time gold-glover, Scott Rolen, along with cash.  St. Louis gets Troy Glaus, a 31 year old, right-handed hitting third baseman.  Foxsports first broke this story.

The ongoing feud between Rolen and Tony La Russa has already been beaten to death.  This trade would clear the disgruntled Rolen, as well as bring in a legitimate right-handed power bat, something Mozeliak has been clamoring for.

Glaus, when healthy, has put up impressive power numbers, hitting 30 or more home runs five times in his career, including an AL leading 47 in 2000.  He's a career .254 hitter and a four time All Star, but a lesser defender than Rolen. It's also been reported that he received shipments of performance enhancing drugs from a Florida pharmacy.  That story is here.  Glaus is signed for $12.75 million in '08, with an $11.25 million option for '09.

I'll miss Scotty.  He was my favorite Cardinal, and I love the way he plays the game.  I guess I'll have to retire my two Rolen jerseys.  On the other hand, at least the Cards are getting a proven commodity in return, unlike the Edmonds trade.  And, it's not like there's a top prospect hanging around waiting to play third for the Redbirds.  Well, the ball club sure is looking different this year.  I can't wait to see how it all plays out.

Classic Quotes

Just for fun, I wanted to post a few of my favorite quotes from St. Louis Cardinals legends.  Enjoy!

"A great catch is like watching girls go by.  The last one you see is always the prettiest."  - Bob Gibson

"Show me a guy who's afraid to look bad and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time."  - Lou Brock

"The Doctors X-rayed my head and found nothing."  - Dizzy Dean

"Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher I ever saw.  He always pitches when the other team doesn't score any runs."  - Tim McCarver

"A slick way to outfigure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure."  - Whitey Herzog

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball.  I'll tell you what I do.  I stare out the window and wait for spring."  - Rogers Hornsby

Me too, Mr. Hornsby.  Me too.

Josh Phelps and More

The Cardinals added more depth for their bench today, signing right-handed hitting first baseman, Josh Phelps, to a minor league deal.  The contract is said to include an invite to Spring Training, where he'll earn $750,000 if he makes the big club, with possible incentives adding another $250,000.  Phelps, 29, has played for five different teams, including Pittsburgh in '07, where he hit .351, with 5 homers in 77 at-bats.  All of his stats can be found here.  Derrick Goold, of the Post Dispatch, has more on the signing here.

The way I see it, Phelps is merely a replacement for Tagg Bozied, who recently signed a minor league deal with the Florida Marlins.  Although Phelps offers decent power off the bench, I just don't see room on the roster for him.  I imagine he'll start the year in Memphis, and act as insurance in case of an injury to Pujols or one of the catchers.  We'll see how things shake down in Spring Training.

I'll go ahead and pass a few more links your way.  Jeff Gordon give a rundown on the Cards' moves thus far here, while Goold talks about the front office new hire, Gary LaRocque, here.  And, if you're wondering how to spend an extra $4000 to $400,000, check out the Cardinals' new Ballpark Founders Marketplace.

And finally, I stumbled across a nice story about a Cubs fan getting an autograph from Matt Clement:

  In ‘03, my cousin and I went to ‘Fan Photo Day’ at Wrigley (where the fans got to go down of the field and meet some of the players and take pictures). Neither one of us were terribly interested (we were both much more interested in just seeing Wrigley from the field, more than anything), with one exception. He absolutely had to get a picture with Matt Clement (who, for various reasons, is his favorite player - so much so, that his license plate reads “HMC 30” - the H stands for Honest). The way this whole thing was set up, there was a rope and the players would sort of walk along the rope from one end of the field to the other, posing for pictures and shaking hands along the way. It got pretty crowded along the rope and the crowd was probably 5 or 6 people deep at this point. When my cousin saw Clement, he politely pushed his way through the crowd to get up to the front, yelling “Matt! Matt!” the whole way to get Clement’s attention. 
  My cousin is a big guy (6’6”, probably 280). He gets to the front of the line, directly in front of Clement, and my cousin says “Matt! I’m your biggest fan!” At this point, the chucklehead standing next to him yells, “Literally!”, due to my cousin’s size. My cousin and Clement both crack up (at which point I snap the picture from the back of the crowd - one of my favorite pictures ever) from the joke. It became one of those stories that gets told over and over again and “Literally!” became something of a catchphrase within our circle of friends.
  Around this time last year, I’m starting to think about my upcoming wedding and what to get my cousin for a best man’s gift. I wanted to get him something really, really special, because he’s done a lot for me over the years and the traditional stuff just wasn’t going to cut it. I was thinking about getting an autographed ball from the internet or something, but I decided that wasn’t good enough, so I wrote Clement a letter telling him the story and what a big fan my cousin was and asked him if he would mind signing the ball that I sent. A few months pass, and I get a package in the mail from Boston. I open it up and Clement signed the ball, “To Ben, My Biggest Fan - Literally! Matt Clement # 30”. This absolutely made my freakin’ day. I don’t think I stopped laughing for a week.
  The night of my rehearsal, I give my cousin the ball and he was just stunned. I mean, he practically cried. He got me a truly great wedding gift (the best gift we got from anyone, in fact), and he later told me that he was embarrassed about how crappy his gift to us was compared to the ball. It’s one of his prized possessions now.

  So that’s the story of the best autograph I’ve ever gotten. Very cool of Mr. Clement to do that for us.

Here's the link.

A Few Remarks

Yesterday, I gave a brief rundown on how the Cardinals' payroll is shaping up.  The guys at VEB did an updated roster matrix and came up with a payroll total similar to mine.  Check it out here.  Also, Derrick Goold talks more about the Rick Ankiel arbitration comparison here.

If you haven't yet heard, the Hall of Fame votes are in.  Rich "Goose" Gossage was the only one on the ballot who got in, with 85.8% of the votes.  Mark McGwire garnered only 23.6%, nearly identical to last year.  Jeff Gordon, with the Post Dispatch, has the full story.  I must say, I was quite surprised.  Of course I didn't expect McGwire to get elected, but I thought he'd get a handful more votes than he did the first time around.  It's possible that his Hall status could hinge on the outcomes of the Clemens and Barry Bonds situations.

It's time we Cards' fans tip our caps to Gerry Staley, former Redbird pitcher, who passed away last week at 87.  Staley pitched for six different teams, including the Cardinals.  He won 54 games for St. Louis, and was a member of the National League All Star team in both '52 and '53.  Read more on this story here, and view his career stats here.

Speaking of stats, you may have noticed that I'm now linking to The Baseball Cube, instead of Baseball Reference.  Both sites are great, and although the latter is more well known, I find The Cube to be easier to read, especially when researching younger players.  It allows both major and minor league numbers to be viewed simultaneously.  Let me know which you prefer.

And finally, Matthew Leach published his second installment of "Around the Horn".  He discusses the corner infielders here.

2008 Payroll

In today's Post Dispatch, there was a Derrick Goold article about the Cardinals and their arbitration eligible players, Yadier Molina, Todd Wellemeyer, and Rick Ankiel. In it, he explains the uniqueness of the Ankiel case, and reports that a long term contract for Molina may be in the works. View the article, in its entirety, here.

I decided to roughly estimate what those players' salaries for '08 might be, and put them together with the rest of the ballclub to see approximately where the Cards currently stand with payroll.  To start last season, it was around $90 million. Remember earlier in the offseason, Dewitt said they'd be willing to increase team payroll to somewhere between $110 and $115 million.

Currently, a starting rotation of Wainwright, Looper, Clement, Pineiro, and Reyes, would cost about $12.9 million. Add in the later additions of Mulder and Carpenter for $17 million, and Clement's incentives ($5.25 million if he were to pitch 200 innings), and we have $35.15 million.

Next, a starting infield of Molina, Pujols, Kennedy, Izturis, and Rolen would cost around $35.55 million. Couple that with only $1.85 million for an outfield of Duncan, Schumaker, and Ankiel to get $37.4 million.

Then, figure about $5.5 million for a bench of Larue, Miles, Spiezio, Ludwick, and Barton.

Now, a possible bullpen of Isringhausen, Springer, Franklin, Flores, Johnson, Thompson, and Wellemeyer would cost close to $16.5 million.

Finally, add $6.5 million for Encarnacion, and leave out Ryan, Kinney, and other fringe players.

This puts the Cardinals payroll (by my estimates) at just over $101 million, which gives Dewitt some wiggle room for another acquisition or possibly to use in a trade near the deadline. So, even after getting out from under most of the Edmonds contract, there's not a lot left to spend.  Barring another deal sometime between now and the end of Spring Training, it looks like this might be the team we see on Opening Day. You can view each individual players' salary here.

Mood Music

For more than 36 years, Ernie Hays has been the organist for the St. Louis Cardinals. Every time I hear this tune, I grab a cold one and get excited for some baseball. Enjoy!



Trouble viewing the video? Click here.

"What's better than a rose on your piano? Tulips on your organ!" -Ernie Hays

I stumbled across an old article in the Riverfront Times that had an interview with Hays back in October of '05. It's a fun read. Check it out here.

Steroids and the Hall: An Introduction

After a relaxing day off work, watching the NFL Wild Card games, I decided to stay tuned for the Roger Clemens interview on "60 Minutes".  Although I found it to be worth watching, soon I felt disturbed after I realized that the controversies currently surrounding Major League Baseball will always appear more newsworthy than any on-field achievements.  That's when I decided to write this intro.

It really bothers me that athletes, especially baseball players, will always be scrutinized, rather than given the benefit of the doubt following outstanding performances.  No matter how full of natural ability and talent a player has, there will always be questions regarding his legitimacy.  Will there ever be another superstar that isn't questioned?  Even after the Mitchell Report, and all of the subsequent reports I'm sure will come out in the coming months, and even after the commissioner's office exhausts ridiculous amounts of time and money into trying to clean up the game of baseball, this will still be the case.  Even when the "steroid era" is over, the debate will not be.  Was this problem caused by the guilty players, the league, the fans, the media, or a more likely, a combination of all of them?

Soon, we'll see the results of the 2008 Hall of Fame voting.  The ballot includes many great players, including our own Mark McGwire, a holdover from last year.  The controversy surrounding him is just as prominent as with Clemens.  Did they cheat?  I don't know.  I'm sure we'll know more eventually.  So where in the history of baseball will these types of players fit?  Nowhere?  Asterisked?  Cooperstown?

We'll discuss that next time.

Quick Notes and Links

After two signings in two days, nothing happening in Baseball Heaven today.  I did, however, stumble across a few good articles about our beloved Redbirds, and thought I'd pass them along while we wait for some fresh news.

First, a couple of journalists over at the Post Dispatch expressed their thoughts on the Clement contract. In addition to his opinion, Jeff Gordon also breaks down the starting rotation as it stands now.  Check out that article here.  Brian Burwell gives his take here.

Over on the Official Cardinal website,  Mathew Leach has begun his annual "Around The Horn" segment, where he covers a different part of the team each week, leading up to Spring Training.  His take on the catchers can be found here.

And finally, I always find it interesting where former Cardinals end up.  Fan favorite So Taguchi signed a one year deal with the Phillies.  Gary Bennett landed with the Dodgers, also on a one year deal.  And John Rodriguez, one of my least favorites, signed a minor league contract with the Tampa Bay Rays.  

Cards Bring Back Miles

Utility infielder, Aaron Miles, re-signed with the Cardinals today after being non-tendered late last month.  The contract is for one year at $1.4 million. This will be Miles' third season with the Birds on the Bat.  He filled an important role on both the '06 and '07 teams, getting playing time at second, short, third, and he even pitched a couple of innings last season.  In 2007, Miles hit .290 and scored 55 runs.  He also committed 14 errors, including three in one inning.  His career stats can be found here.  Derrick Goold, of the Post Dispatch, has more about the deal here.

I must say, I don't really understand this move.  I think Aaron Miles is a good utility infielder, and will obviously welcome him to the team, but with Adam Kennedy, Brendan Ryan, and Scott Spiezio all returning from last season, as well as the addition of Cesar Izturis and the minor league contract given to D'Angelo Jimenez, I don't see room on the roster for Miles.  Also, let's not forget about Jarrett Hoffpauir, our second base prospect approaching an opportunity for playing time.  Why spend $1.4 million on Miles when we have basically the same player in Brendan Ryan already on the team for much less money?  I hope this doesn't mean that Ryan starts the year in AAA.  Perhaps we'll see another move in the coming days involving one of our middle infielders.  If not, maybe we can try to field an entire team with nothing but infielders.  I bet Jose Oquendo would like that.

In other news, the contract details for yesterday's signing of pitcher Matt Clement have been released.  He'll receive $1.5 million in base pay, with a possible $5.25 million in incentives based on appearances.  The '09 option would be for $8.75 million with a $250,000 buyout.  C70 has more on that here.

Cards Sign Clement

John Mozeliak and the St. Louis Cardinals made another move today, signing pitcher Matt Clement to help strengthen the starting rotation.  The deal is for one year, with an option for 2009.  The salary has not yet been released, but the contract is said to be heavily incentive laden.

Starting pitching was the biggest need for the Cards going into this offseason.  In 2007, Cardinal starters were among the leagues worst.

Clement, 33, missed all of '07, recovering from shoulder surgery.  He most recently pitched with Boston, but is more known for his time with the Chicago Cubs. Lifetime, he is 87-86 with a 4.47 ERA.  View all of his stats here.

I like this move.  No one expects Clement to be a cure for the Cardinals pitching woes, but it's clearly a low risk, high reward signing.  Personally, I think the starting pitching will be much better in '08 simply by not handing the ball to anyone named Wells or Maroth.  For some more insight on this signing, check out Bernie's Extra Points here.

2008 Team Outlook - Part 3

I think it's time to continue our piece by piece analysis of this years ball club.  I've already discussed the bullpen and the infield.  It seems now that the outfield is pretty well set, so let's take a look.

Going into this offseason, many, including myself, thought that the Cardinals had a surplus of outfielders, and that one would have to be moved in a package to acquire a decent pitcher.  As it turns out, the shocking trade of Jim Edmonds to San Diego was more of a salary dump type of move, as they received only a minor league infielder in return.  I'm sure I won't be the only one who'll miss Jimmy patrolling center this summer.

So, without Edmonds, it's much more clear what this season's outfield will look like. Basically, there are six guys competing for five spots.  Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, and Ryan Ludwick seem to be the givens, while Skip Schumaker, newly acquired Brian Barton, and top prospect Colby Rasmus will be competing for the other two roster spots.  The guys over at Viva El Birdos make an excellent argument as to why Rasmus should start the season at AAA Memphis. Check out that write up here.

Chris Duncan is the only one on the list that can't play center.  He should get most of the playing time in left field.  Last season, Duncan hit .259 with 21 homers in 375 at bats, and had limited playing time against lefties.  I expect much of the same from Dunc this year offensively, while I believe his defense will be slightly improved.

Rick Ankiel, according to Mozeliak, is currently atop the centerfield depth chart.  While I agree that Rick would be a fine centerfielder, I think his tremendous arm is better suited for right field.  Also, I don't think it makes much sense to move him to center to start the year only to have to move him back upon Rasmus' arrival.  If I had to guess, I'd say Ankiel gets plenty of starts at both positions.  Last season, he hit a combined 43 home runs between Memphis and St. Louis.  I love his power numbers, but would like to see him cut down on his strikeouts. Regardless, he'll receive plenty of curtain calls in '08.

The remaining outfield at bats will be shared in a platoon of Ludwick, Schumaker, and Barton. We know that Ryan Ludwick is a good 4th outfielder that can provide some right handed power coming off the bench.  Last season, he hit.267 with 14 home runs and 22 doubles.  Skip Schumaker is a good defensive outfielder, and has been deserving of a more important role with the team.  Last year, he hit .333 in 177 at bats, and may be a candidate to bat leadoff.  As for Brian Barton, we don't really know what we're getting.  He's had success at each level he's played, even playing through a knee injury.  As a Rule 5 draftee, Barton must remain on the roster all season, or be relinquished back to Cleveland.  He's supposed to have above average speed, and also could be considered to bat leadoff on occasion.

I think I'll hold of on discussing Colby Rasmus.  His status could garnish it's own post. However, let's not forget that Scott Spiezio will probably get a little playing time in the outfield as well.

Overall, I think this is an exciting group, and should be very fun to watch.  Now how many days until Spring Training?

Happy New Year

So, it's been a while since I've posted anything new.  What the hell?  Well, it's been a crazy couple of months. Here's the short version:

The second biggest Card's fan and I recently broke up, and although I haven't stopped following the team's day to day happenings, lately I haven't had the energy or drive to do anything with this blog.  So, after a few weeks of burying my head in the sand (I still live in South Florida), trying to get my mind right, and with the advice of family and friends, I'm back to give it another go.

Meanwhile, instead of trying to recap on everything that's been going on in Cardinal Country over the last two months I think it's best to direct you to a few others around the Cardinal's blogosphere for their insights on all the latest Redbird's news.  The biggest stories include the Jim Edmonds trade, the signings of Cesar Izturis and Jason LaRue, the non-signings of David Eckstein and So Taguchi, the Rule 5 pickup of Brian Barton, and the minor league deals for an infielder and a few pitchers.  Catch all of the news from C70, Cardinals GM, and Cardinal Nation Globe.  Also, I stumbled across a video that really got me excited for the '08 season, and you can check it out here.

Well, let's hope the Cardinals continue to improve the squad before Spring Training.  Also, I've got a couple of other interesting fill-in stories, so check back tomorrow.  In the meantime, Go Cards!